Scoring in the National Basketball Association (NBA) has increased on a relatively consistent basis year-over-year since the 2003-04 season, when teams averaged 93.4 points per game. NBA teams averaged 100 points per game in 2008-09 for the first time since the 1994-95 season and, following a three-year period in which they averaged fewer than 100 points per game, have exceeded that threshold every year since the 2013-14 season. Teams averaged 112.1 points per game in 2020-21, which was the highest since the 1970-71 season. A major reason for the boost is the increased emphasis on 3-point shooting.
Although the NBA introduced the 3-point line for the 1979-80 season, it wasn’t used much at that time. In fact, teams attempted less than three 3-point attempts per game and made fewer than one 3-point field goal per game. It wasn’t until 1987-88 when teams averaged five 3-point attempts per game. In 2020-21, NBA teams attempted an average of 34.6 3-point fields per game.
The way in which NBA teams orchestrate their offense has especially changed over the course of the past five years. The 3-point shot attempt rate has increased not only leaguewide in each of the past 10 seasons (from 22.2 percent to 39.2 percent), but also at a greater rate over the last five years than the prior five. Teams attempted an average of 29 3-point field goals per game in 2017-18. They averaged 34.6 attempts in the 2020-21 season.
Moreover, only six of 30 teams took at least one-third of their total shots from beyond the 3-point line during the 2015-16 season. That number increased to 28 teams last season. The Washington Wizards (31.9 percent) and San Antonio Spurs (31.4 percent) were the only two teams below this threshold.
The careers of Ray Allen and Steph Curry are great case studies to highlight the change in offensive strategy in the NBA. Both are regarded among the best 3-point shooters in league history, but Curry overtook Allen for the all-time lead in 3-point field goals in 511 fewer games.
Curry broke the record during the Golden State Warriors’ 105-96 victory over the New York Knicks on December 15. He finished the game with 2,977 career-made 3-pointers. The Warriors and Knicks attempted a combined 82 3-pointers in that game, which Warriors head coach Steve Kerr noted was “a testament to Steph’s impact on the league.”
However, it’s not as if Curry alone has shaped the offensive strategy among NBA teams. There have been many coaches, including Rudy Tomjanovich and Stan Van Gundy, who have placed increased emphasis on 3-point shooting over the years. Mike D’Antoni might be the best example. His Houston Rockets took more than 45 percent of their field goals from 3-point range in 2016-17 and finished second in the league in total points scored. The Rockets took more than half of their shots from 3-point range the following season and ranked first offensively.
Another reason for the increase in 3-point attempts is that teams have finally figured out these shots provide more value than mid-range jumpers. From 1998 to 2018, teams averaged 1.16 points-per-shot on corner-3 attempts and 1.05 points-per-shot on above-the-break 3-point attempts. In contrast, they averaged only 0.79 points-per-shot on mid-range and in-the-paint attempts.
Luke Stankavage 